The role of forecasting in market shaping: Hema Srinivasan on Forecasting Impact podcast

Hema Srinivasan, Senior Advisor to MedAccess, recently appeared on the International Institute of Forecasters’ Forecasting Impact podcast. In a wide-ranging conversation,  Hema discusses the role of forecasting in our efforts to shape markets and why interest in innovative finance for global health is increasing.

In the interview, Hema explains to hosts Arian Sultan and Laila Akhlaghi that forecasting is an integral part of how we design our agreements: “We usually develop lots of different scenarios. The first step is figuring out the potential impact of a product if it’s scaled up. Then, once we’re convinced of its value to society, the design of a market shaping intervention is almost entirely founded on projected demand. So, it’s really at the core of what we do.”

Hema shares the example of our volume guarantee with SD Biosensor, which is  increasing access to HIV and syphilis dual tests. She discusses how we used forecasting to understand how different price points would influence demand for the tests: “We did quite a lot of forecasting through that process. In 2021, we announced a deal with SD Biosensor and, since then, we’ve seen tremendous impact.”

The episode also explores how interest in volume guarantees is growing in other areas: “This field is very new but I think people are seeing the value for money… I think donors are seeing that and getting excited,” Hema adds. This, she says, is translating into organisations considering how they can apply lessons learnt from using volume guarantees in global health to other priority areas, including climate change.

You can listen to the podcast here.